Probability and Possibility | EstheraSTEM

You know those uncertain choices you make every day?

Like deciding whether to carry an umbrella because the weather is dull or you're wondering if your exam guesses were correct?

What if I tell you there's a science behind these choices? And it is called Probability, which is our way of assigning numbers to uncertainty.

---

P.S: We're skipping the equations and heavy math in this article to learn more about the decision-making concept of probability.

---

What is Probability?

At its core, Probability is more than just coin flips and dice rolls, it is a window into how we understand chance, risk and even fairness.

Put simply,

Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur.

It's also the measure of the likelihood that an event will happen.

Think of it as a scale from 0 to 1:

 • 0 means an event is impossible, and 

 • 1 means an event is certain.

Beyond a simple coin toss, probability is the quiet engine behind real-world predictions in nearly every field. In finance, analysts use it to calculate the risk of investments and make smarter choices with money. For meteorologists, probability is the foundation of weather forecasting and prediction.

In the world of medicine, doctors rely on probability to determine a patient’s risk for a disease or the success rate of a new treatment. This allows them to formulate informed decisions about your health. And in the cutting-edge field of machine learning and AI, probability is a cornerstone. Algorithms use it to make predictions, recognize patterns and even power things like your social media feed or self-driving cars, which must constantly assess the likelihood of different events.

A Brief History of Probability

The word probability derives from the Latin probabilitas, which meant "probity", a measure of a witness's authority in a legal case. In a sense, this differs from the modern meaning of probability, which is a measure of the weight of empirical evidence.

Gerolamo Cardano

It is so easy to assume probability is a modern invention, but its roots stretch back to the 16th and 17th centuries when mathematicians like Gerolamo Cardano and Blaise Pascal began analyzing games of chance.

Today, Probability theory has matured into a deep branch of mathematics, foundational to statistics, quantum physics and finance. Even DNA mutations are studied through probability models to help scientists understand how likely genetic variations are to occur.

Possibility vs. Probability: What’s the Difference?

People often confuse possibility with probability. They are just related and are not the same!

 • Possibility asks, "Can this happen?"

while,

 • Probability asks, "How likely is this to happen?"

For instance, It is possible to win the lottery, but the probability is incredibly low. Probability helps us make peace with that difference and it doesn’t just say what can happen but tells us how likely it really is, as well.

Take Note

In this World of Uncertainty, Think Probabilistically!

Life is full of decisions we have to make without complete certainty and Probability offers a logical framework for navigating this uncertainty. By teaching us not to fear randomness, but to measure it, analyze it, and in some cases, embrace it.

When you start thinking in probabilities, you’re no longer just guessing; you are reasoning with a powerful universal toolkit that accept risk exists, gather the best data you can and execute well informed decisions based on likelihood.